Inner Mission Market Snapshot 2026: Median Price, DOM, and Inventory

Year-end 2025 baseline heading into 2026, plus a rate-driven outlook for buyers and sellers

Introduction

The Inner Mission has always been a little allergic to simple headlines.

If you only look at one “San Francisco market update,” you can walk away thinking the whole city is either heating up or cooling down. Then you tour homes between 16th and Cesar Chavez, from Valencia to Potrero, and realize what locals already know: the Inner Mission is several micro-markets living inside one zip-code sized box.

That’s why two things can be true at the same time here:

• Single-family homes (SFH) can still draw bidding wars, especially when condition, light, layout, and location line up.
• Condos can still take price cuts, especially when buyers feel rate pressure, see competing listings, or worry about HOA and building questions.

This post is a data-forward snapshot built for both buyers and sellers. It anchors on the most recent neighborhood-level quarterly data available for “Inner Mission,” then uses late-2025 monthly trend data for a year-end reality check, and finally lays out a practical 2026 outlook built around the one variable that changes demand fastest: mortgage rates. 

If you want my full Inner Mission market report plus an Inner Mission area guide you can request it at the end.

Key takeaways

• Inner Mission (neighborhood snapshot, Q3 2025): Median sales price $972,000, average DOM 65, inventory 26 active listings at quarter end. 
• The median is “mix-driven”: In that same quarter, 51.3% of closed sales were under $1M, which tells you condos and condo-like product are heavily influencing the headline median. 
• Year-end 2025 reality check (Mission District, Nov 2025): Median sale price $1,090,000, average DOM 33 days, and 51 homes sold that month. (Redfin)
• Rates are still the demand lever: Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed averaged 6.21% as of Dec 18, 2025; Fannie Mae’s ESR group forecast mortgage rates ending 2026 around 5.9%. (Freddie Mac)
• 2026 likely stays “two-speed”: SFH remains scarcity-driven, condos remain payment-sensitive. If rates ease, condo competition can tighten quickly.

What “Inner Mission” means in this article (so the data stays honest)

We’re using your boundary:

Inner Mission = 16th Street to Cesar Chavez, and Valencia to Potrero.

This matters because real estate data providers do not all use the same neighborhood polygon. Some sources publish “Mission District,” others publish “Inner Mission,” and the numbers can move simply because the boundary moved. In this article:

• Inner Mission stats come from a dedicated Inner Mission quarterly market update that aggregates MLS-based data and is explicit about the quarter-end cut off. 
• Year-end context comes from a monthly Mission District trend page (close-in timing, slightly broader boundary). (Redfin)

If you want a true “Valencia-to-Potrero polygon-only” report, that’s exactly the kind of thing I include in the full market report.

Inner Mission baseline heading into 2026: the three numbers that shape every negotiation

Let’s keep this clean and market-nerdy, in the best way.

1) Median price

Inner Mission median sales price: $972,000 (Q3 2025) for single-family homes and condos combined. 

Two immediate notes:

1. That median was reported as 19% lower than Q3 2024, which is a meaningful year-over-year move for a neighborhood that usually has strong demand. 
2. The median is not saying “Inner Mission is cheap.” It’s saying the mix of what sold leaned heavily toward under-$1M product in that quarter.

You can see that mix clearly in the closed-sales-by-price breakdown:

• 51.3% of closed sales were under $1M
• 48.7% were $1M to $3M
• 0% above $3M in that quarter 

In other words, the median is being pulled by condos and condo-adjacent product. That fits perfectly with what you’re seeing on the street: condos needing price cuts more often, while SFHs behave like a different species.

If you want a quick “trend line” view instead of one quarter, the same report lists Inner Mission medians and DOM across the last five years (Q3 snapshots). The median was $1.21M in Q3 2024 and dropped to $972K in Q3 2025, while DOM jumped from 34 to 65. 

That is the data version of, “buyers got choosier.”

2) Days on market (DOM)

Inner Mission average DOM: 65 days (Q3 2025), reported as 91% higher than Q3 2024. 

DOM is one of the most useful numbers in a two-speed market because it tells you where leverage lives.

• In segments where DOM is short, terms matter and buyers need to be clean.
• In segments where DOM stretches, the negotiation shifts toward price, credits, repairs, or rate buydowns.

The key is not treating DOM like trivia. Treat it like a timing signal.

Also worth noting: while DOM rose, the number of closed sales rose too. Inner Mission reported 39 closed sales in Q3 2025, up 63% year over year in that same snapshot. That combination (more sales, longer DOM) often shows up when buyers are still active, but they’re taking their time and negotiating harder.

3) Inventory

Inner Mission inventory: 26 active listings at the end of Q3 2025, reported as 53% fewer than Q3 2024. 

Inventory is the quiet stat that explains the loud behavior.

When inventory is shrinking, even a “slower” market can feel competitive in the right segment, because buyers are still competing for a limited set of homes that meet their criteria. In the Inner Mission, that scarcity is most obvious in single-family homes, but inventory pressure matters for condos too because it affects how many comparable options buyers can credibly threaten to buy instead.

The year-end 2025 pulse check: Mission District numbers as a late-2025 proxy

Quarterly neighborhood reports are great for a clean “snapshot,” but year-end conversations usually want something closer to December.

For a near-year-end read, Redfin’s Mission District housing market page reported that in November 2025:

• Median sale price: $1,090,000
• Average days on market: 33 days
• Homes sold: 51 (up from 38 the year prior) (Redfin)

A few practical ways to interpret this in Inner Mission terms:

1. The market was still moving at year-end. Thirty-three days is not a market freeze. It’s a market where pricing and presentation matter, and where the best inventory still finds a buyer. (Redfin)
2. The median being higher than the Inner Mission Q3 median is expected. The Mission District boundary is broader than Inner Mission, and month-to-month medians swing with mix. (Redfin)
3. The spread between “headline” DOM and what you feel in real life is normal here. Some listings sell quickly, others sit. The average smooths that story.

If you want a citywide sanity check, Redfin’s San Francisco market page reported a $1.5M median sale price in November 2025. (Redfin) That’s not directly comparable to Inner Mission, but it frames how the Mission sits inside the broader SF pricing ecosystem.

Why Inner Mission feels like two markets in one

You called it exactly, and the data supports the shape of it.

Single-family homes are scarcity-driven

SFHs in the Inner Mission are limited by the neighborhood’s built form. You do not get waves of new SFHs. You get occasional listings, and the good ones are hard to replace.

That’s why even when buyers are cautious, a well-positioned SFH can still trigger competition. Not because buyers forgot interest rates, but because there are only so many shots on goal.

Condos are payment-sensitive and comparison-friendly

Condos are different because:

• Buyers can compare one building to another more easily.
• Monthly payment math dominates condo decisions.
• HOA, insurance, and building financials can create friction that does not exist for an SFH.

So you see more price cuts when a condo launches above the market, or when the unit has a solvable objection (layout, light, outdoor space, parking, HOA perception), or when the seller is time-constrained.

The 2026 outlook: what changes if rates fall, and what stays the same if they do not

If you want one variable that genuinely changes buyer behavior quickly, it’s the 30-year fixed rate.

Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed at 6.21% as of December 18, 2025. (Freddie Mac)
Fannie Mae’s ESR group forecast mortgage rates ending 2026 around 5.9% (their September 2025 outlook). (Fannie Mae)

Those numbers might not sound dramatic at first glance, but even modest rate moves change affordability and psychology, especially for condos.

Also hovering in the background is the “lock-in effect,” where homeowners with low-rate mortgages are reluctant to sell and trade into a higher payment, which can keep resale inventory tighter than it would be otherwise. (Wall Street Journal)

Scenario A: Rates ease into the high 5s in 2026 (the “condo snapback” setup)

If rates drift lower and stay lower, here’s what I’d expect to happen first in the Inner Mission:

1. Condo demand tightens. Buyers who have been waiting for a better monthly payment re-enter.
2. The best condos stop cutting. The mediocre inventory still negotiates, but the top third of listings gain pricing power.
3. DOM compresses. Not to 2021 levels, but enough that “stale listing” opportunities become rarer.

In this scenario, the buyer advantage in condos shrinks faster than people expect, because condos are the segment most directly tied to monthly payment math.

Single-family homes do what they usually do in this case: remain competitive, because they were already competitive.

Scenario B: Rates hover around the low 6s longer than hoped (the “two-speed continues” setup)

If rates do not meaningfully ease, the Inner Mission likely stays two-speed:

• SFHs still get competitive when the home is right.
• Condos remain more negotiable, and sellers who want a result will need to price to the market in front of them, not the market they remember.

In this scenario, buyers should expect to keep seeing price improvements on condos, and sellers should expect the market to keep rewarding precision.

Scenario C: Rates move lower, but inventory stays tight (the “fast market, picky buyers” setup)

This is an under-discussed one.

If rates ease, but sellers still do not list in volume (lock-in effect plus uncertainty), you can see a market where:

• More buyers show up, but
• Not much new inventory appears, and
• Buyers still remain picky because they remember 2022 to 2025 volatility.

That combination can create quick competition for the best homes, even while flawed inventory sits. It feels chaotic unless you know what you’re watching.

Practical strategy for buyers in 2026 (SFH and condos, separately)

This is where the snapshot becomes useful instead of just interesting.

If you’re buying a single-family home

1) Assume your competition is not the whole market, it’s your micro-market.
In the Inner Mission, the SFH you want is competing against maybe two or three other realistic substitutes, not dozens. When one checks the right boxes, the competition concentrates.

2) Do your “certainty work” upfront.
In bidding-war situations, certainty is currency. If you want to be taken seriously, your offer needs to feel inevitable.

That usually means:

• strong lender positioning (not just a pre-qual, a real pre-approval),
• clean timelines,
• clean communication,
• and a clear plan for disclosures and inspection strategy.

3) Use DOM as your clue.
When a strong SFH is still fresh, assume it can go quickly. When an SFH sits, ask why. The answer is usually pricing, condition, or a functional issue that changes the buyer pool.

If you’re buying a condo

1) Treat DOM like a negotiation map.
Inner Mission’s average DOM was 65 days in the Q3 snapshot, which aligns with a market where condo buyers can negotiate when a listing loses momentum. (marketupdates.sothebysrealty.com)

For condos, I pay close attention to:

• Days on market,
• price-change history,
• how the unit compares to active competition,
• and building questions that might scare off the casual buyer.

2) Decide whether you want a “deal” or you want a “rare unit.”
This sounds obvious, but it’s the hinge point for most condo buyers.

• If you want a deal, you shop where there is friction, and you negotiate.
• If you want a rare unit (top-floor, exceptional light, outdoor space, parking, low HOA, iconic building), you may need to move more like an SFH buyer.

3) Think in monthly payment, not just purchase price.
In a rate-sensitive environment, a well-structured offer might include:

• seller credits,
• an interest rate buydown,
• or specific repair credits tied to inspection items.

This can be more impactful than a small price change, depending on the buyer’s cash position and lender strategy.

Practical strategy for sellers in 2026 (again, SFH and condos separately)

If you’re selling a single-family home

1) Your first week is still your most valuable week.
Even with higher rates, buyers track new inventory obsessively in scarcity neighborhoods. If you miss the launch window, you often end up chasing the market instead of leading it.

2) Price to create urgency, not debate.
In a two-speed market, “testing a number” can work, but it only works if you are willing to adjust quickly when the market tells you no.

The Inner Mission snapshot shows DOM rising and inventory shrinking. That combination rewards sellers who price precisely.

3) Control the narrative with preparation.
The SFH buyer pool is still deep here, but they’re more analytical than they used to be. Clean disclosures, clear pre-inspection strategy, and strong presentation reduce buyer uncertainty, which is exactly what makes offers stronger.

If you’re selling a condo

1) Price against active competition, not against the last peak sale.
This is the most common condo mistake. Buyers do not negotiate against the past, they negotiate against the other listings they can buy next weekend.

2) Plan your price adjustment before you list.
If your goal is to sell, the smartest move is often having a pre-set strategy like:

• “If we don’t get showings by day 10, adjust.”
• “If we don’t get offers by day 14 to 21, adjust again.”

That keeps you in control instead of reacting emotionally.

3) Make it easy to say yes.
When condos are cutting, the winners are usually the listings that remove friction:

• clean showing access,
• sharp staging and photography,
• easy-to-understand HOA info,
• and a negotiation posture that feels straightforward.

What I’d watch month-to-month in 2026 if you want to time your move well

If you’re the type who likes leading indicators (and if you’re reading a market snapshot, you probably are), here are the signals that matter most in the Inner Mission:

1. Rate direction, not rate headlines.
   Freddie Mac’s weekly series is useful because it shows the trend without the noise. (Freddie Mac)
2. Inventory at the segment level.
   If SFH inventory stays thin, expect competition to remain. If condo inventory rises while demand stays flat, expect price cuts to continue.
3. DOM compression or expansion.
   If DOM compresses for condos, that’s a strong sign demand is coming back.
4. Sale count.
   The Mission District’s 51 homes sold in Nov 2025 is a good example of why volume matters. It tells you buyers are still transacting, not just browsing. (Redfin)

Want the full Inner Mission market report and area guide?

If you have questions about buying or selling in the Inner Mission, reach out to me. I’ll talk you through what these numbers mean for your specific property type and your specific block.

And if you want the deeper dive, you can request:

• my Inner Mission area guide (street-level feel, micro-pockets, lifestyle notes), and
• the full Inner Mission market report (more detailed breakdowns and a clearer SFH vs condo split based on the most current data available).

FAQs

1) Why does the Inner Mission median look “low” compared to what single-family homes sell for?
Because the neighborhood median is heavily influenced by the mix of sales. If a quarter has more condo and condo-like closings, the median shifts down even if SFHs stayed expensive.

2) Are TICs included in these snapshots, and do they behave more like condos or SFHs?
Most public market dashboards group product differently, but in day-to-day behavior, TICs typically trade closer to the condo market because financing, buyer profiles, and monthly payment sensitivity are more similar to condos than to SFHs.

3) What’s the cleanest way to track “inventory” in Inner Mission if I’m serious about timing?
Track active listings weekly, not monthly, and track them by property type (SFH, condo, and small multifamily if you are considering it). Inventory shifts can show up fast, especially in spring and early fall.

4) If I’m a seller, should I renovate before listing in 2026?
It depends on whether the renovation removes a deal-killer or just adds polish. Buyers pay up for problems you solved, not for money you spent. The best pre-list upgrades are usually the ones that simplify underwriting and remove buyer uncertainty.

5) If rates drop in 2026, will condos immediately start getting bidding wars too?
Not immediately, and not uniformly. The first condos to tighten are typically the ones with strong light, clean layouts, parking or outdoor space, reasonable HOA positioning, and no obvious building question marks. The rest can still negotiate even in an improving rate environment.

Gain Access to Inner Mission Neighborhood Guide and Request an Inner Mission Market Report here: https://nicholasguzmanestates.com/explore-communities/san-francisco/inner-mission/